By combining the latest technological developments in the field of ICT, hydrological models, crop models and satellites, it is possible to develop a real-time forecasting system for crop production, enabling water boards, farmers and the insurance broker to improve their services and possibly reduce costs.
Therefore, a joint project proposal is made by Achmea (Agro), Deltares and the water boards Aa en Maas and Vechtstromen.
Project aim
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- Setup areal time forecasting crop modelling system that feeds the farmer app with relevant crop production data
- Calibrate the models and test them for practicality
- Test the usability of these data for the pilot farmers and the water boards involved
- Test the usefulness of these data for the determination and tracking of crop damage.
It is proposed to calculate the available soil moisture and crop production on a parcel basis with the coupled MODFLOW-MetaSWAP-WOFOST model during the 2018 growing season. The pilot area will be determined together with Achmea and the water boards. The suggestion is to take the upstream catchment of the Vecht area of Ommen (towards the German border) and a pilot area in the East of Brabant (water boards Aa en Maas). These areas are preferable because on the one hand there are many clients of Achmea and on the other hand activities carried out by water boards in these areas are carried out within a knowledge program for the high sandy soils (Lumbricus).
The models will be integrated into FEWSforreal-timeforecastofcrop production. the output from FEWS will feed a developed app. Thefarmersapp will be made available to a selection of farmers in the pilot area (15-20).
Activities
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The project is divided in two stages. In phase 1 we will develop in close calibration with the waterboards, Achmea and the farmers the forecasting system for crop production that will feed the developed app by Milan SAF. Also experience from Wageningen Envrionmenta lResearch in cropmodelling(WOFOST) will be involved. In phase 2 we will calibrate the models and do data assimilation with available soil moisture and groundwater level measurements retrieved from satellite data to improve the results of the model. The following steps describe the activities to fulfill the project’s objectives.
Phase 1: Setup the operational system and develop the farmers app
- Deltares in collaboration with the waterboards and Achmea will select the most suitable pilot areas with preferably a dense monitoring network of groundwater levels and soil moisture
- A workshop with farmers will be organised by Deltares, Achmea, waterboardsandMilanto to refine the app to farmers’ needs.
- Deltares will clip the regional MODFLOW-METASWAP-WOFOST model for the selected pilot area and run the models and check if the results make sense.
- Deltares will integrate the models in a FEWS system for real-time forecasting. Delft-FEWS consists of a sophisticated set of configurable modules for building a hydrological forecasting system customised to the specific requirements of an individual organisation. https://www.deltares.nl/app/uploads/2015/01/Delft-FEWS_brochure-2017.pdf
- The relevant WOFOST output from FEWSsystemsuch as potential production and water-limited production will be exported to Milan and to the water boards. This activity will be done in collaboration with the water boards and Milan
- Milan SAF will develop the farmers’ app with as input the exported data from FEWS.
Phase 2: Improve the model results by:
- Data assimilation with available soil moisture satellite data and groundwater level measurements. This activity will be performed by Deltares in close collaboration with the water boards that have the expert knowledge and satellite data. Also Wageningen Environmental research will be involved by Deltares (contract Deltares-WUR) to incorporate their knowledge on crop modelling.
- Calibrate the model with historical crop damage data from the farmers and ground measurements and with available historical satellite data. This activity will be performed by Deltares in close collaboration with the waterboards and Achmea, since all parties have expert knowledge and data in this area.
- Evaluate the app with the farmers, the water boards, Achmea and Milan SAF.
- The project team will provide a final version of the app based on evaluation and the newly calibrated model.
The table below shows all activities of phase 1 and 2 coupled to the organization(s) that will perform the activity.
Deliverables
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The deliverables include:
- Daily updated 10 day forecast data of WOFOST in the required data format will be automatically exported to the farmers app (eg potential production and water-limited production)
- Daily updated 10 day forecast hydrological and WOFOST data in the required data format will be automatically exported to the water board (eg potential production and water-limited production)
- Organizing 2 workshops with farmers, Achmea and waterboards:
- 1 workshop: output will be a list of requirements for the app from the farmers
- 1 workshop :output will be an evaluation of the farmers app
- Report:
- Description of the setup of the operational system
- Description of the applied models (MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST)
- Description of the calibration and verification of the models
- Descriptions of the outputs of the workshops
- Conclusions and recommendations