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Effects of Seasonality on the Estimation of Environmental Extremes

The Dutch Water Defenses are designed and maintained according to hydraulic load estimates determined from extreme value analysis of wind and wave data from the North Sea. Commonly, this analysis involves selection of extremes via

Wiki Markup
{table-row} {table-cell:valign=top} {panel} h2. Effects of Seasonality on the Estimation of Environmental Extremes {panel} The Dutch Water Defenses are designed and maintained according to hydraulic load estimates determined from extreme value analysis of wind and wave data from the North Sea. Commonly, this analysis involves selection of extremes via

peaks-over-threshold

which

are

then

fit

to

a

generalized

Pareto

distribution.

This process assumes the data are independent and identically distributed

This process assumes the data are independent and identically distributed (iid).

The

first

can be achieved through

can be achieved through declustering,

but

the

second

is

more

difficult

to

confirm

and may be violated by seasonal variation and other temporal trends. In this study, the importance of this violation will be investigated by applying a time-stratified (seasonal) model and a time-varying model (here a non-homogeneous Poisson process) for full-year return value estimates which can be compared to the results of current, non-seasonal methods. In addition, an effort will be made to estimate seasonal return values (eg. Separate summer and winter estimates), since the critical failure modes may be different in different seasons.  {table-cell} {table-row} {table-row} {table-cell:colspan=2} \\ {table-cell} {table-row}

and may be violated by seasonal variation and other temporal trends.

In this study, the importance of this violation will be investigated by applying a time-stratified (seasonal) model and a time-varying model (here a non-homogeneous Poisson process) for full-year return value estimates which can be compared to the results of current, non-seasonal methods. In addition, an effort will be made to estimate seasonal return values (eg. Separate summer and winter estimates), since the critical failure modes may be different in different seasons. 

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Info: MSc Student, CoMEM

Metadata list
|| Name | Alex Trahan ||
|| Email | Alexander.Trahan@Deltares.nl ||
|| Room | Party Room ||
|| Software package | Matlab - ORCA ||
|| Start Date | 21 Jan 2013 ||
|| End Date | 21 Jun 2013 ||
|| Specialisation Programme | Coastal & Marine Engineering & Management (CoMEM) ||
|| Deltares supervisors | Sofia Caires ||
|| TU Delft professor | Bas Jonkman, Pieter van Gelder ||