Uncertainty in Flood Safety Assessment
According to the Dutch Water Defence Act, the strength of the Dutch primary water defences must be assessed every five years (1996, 2001, 2006, 2011, etc.) for the required level of protection, which, depending on the area protected by the water defence, may vary from 250 to 10,000 year loads. These loads are determined on the basis of Hydraulic Boundary Conditions (HBC) and must also be derived anew and approved by the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management (VenW) every five years.
The calculations involved in the determination of both the hydraulic loads and the strength of the defences are subject to uncertainty. Many studies have been and are being performed which focus on:
- indentification of sources of uncertainty
- quantification of uncertainty
- effect of reduction in uncertainty
- relative importance of different sources of uncertainty.
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