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Code Block
languagexml
titletimeseries
	<transformation id="compute_probability_of_exceedance_of_spi_equal_to_two">
		<statisticsEnsemble>
			<eventProbability>
				<inputVariable>
					<variableId>spi</variableId>
				</inputVariable>
				<includeMissingValues>false</includeMissingValues>
				<event>
                    <lower><variableId>lower_boundaries</variableId></lower>
					<upper><variableId>upper_boundaries</variableId></upper>
                </event>
				<outputVariable>
					<variableId>probability_spi_gte_2</variableId>
				</outputVariable>
			</eventProbability>
		</statisticsEnsemble>
	</transformation>

Example

In below example, the probability of three events is computed.

  • Event 1 is the event where Q.forecast < 10 m3/s
  • Event 2 is the event where 10 <= Q.forecast < 20 m3/s
  • Event 3 is the event where Q >= 20 m3/s.

In this example, the events are chosen in such a way that they are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. The combined probability should therefore sum to 1. The configuration file for this example can be downloaded from here. A timeseries plot for the results is shown below.

Image Added