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The quality of the flood forecasts will, in general, depend on the quality of the simulation model, the accuracy of the precipitation and boundary forecasts, and the efficiency of the data assimilation procedure (Madsen, et al. 2000).
Until now, no data assimilation methods were available in FEWS-Rhine. This document describes the AR error module that can be used for output correction.
 

Role in FEWS

The error modelling module is a generic forecasting module. The module is used to improve the reliability of forecast by attempting to identify the structure of the error a forecasting module makes during the modelling phase where both the simulated and observed values are available, and then applying this structure to the forecast values. This is under the assumption that the structure of the error remains unchanged.

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