Jasper Hoek

In several regions around the globe the most extreme wave and storm surge conditions are governed by the occurrence of tropical cyclones. Cyclones are rare events which causes data scarcity when it comes to determining design conditions. To overcome this issue synthetic tropical cyclones can be simulated by sampling characteristic variables from probability distribution functions based on historical cyclone data. From these characteristics entire cyclone tracks can be simulated by sampling the change in the characteristics for every time step resulting in a synthetic cyclone track and intensity from genesis to lysis. Subsequently the spatial wind distribution around the eye can be determined along the entire track with the help of wind field models (WES). These wind fields are used as input for hydrodynamic (Delftd3D FLOW & SWAN) to determine wave and storm surge conditions.