Excited to announce that our latest research is published in Earth's Future!
Storm surges can drive dangerous coastal flooding. With climate change, the frequency of coastal flooding will increase across the globe. Although sea-level rise will be the main driver of increases in global coastal flood risk in the coming decades, changes in extremes could make things worse. Despite rapidly advancing global model studies, it is still poorly understood how storm surges will response to a warmer climate is still poorly.
In this paper we investigate the potential impact of climate change on storm surges using global high resolution climate models from HighResMIP and the Deltares Global Tide and Surge Model. The median-ensemble of the 1 in 10-year storm surge levels from 2021–2050 compared to 1951–1980 shows changes up to 0.1 m or 20%. The individual models can show much larger changes but also have clear spatial biases. Further research is required to understand the causes of the biases and increase the confidence in the projected changes.
Access the full paper here:
All data is openly available at the Climate Data Store by Copernicus ECMWF:
- Timeseries: https://lnkd.in/e49QFwvJ
- Return periods: https://lnkd.in/eziF9up5