Water management faces major challenges to cope with potential global change impacts, and the inherent uncertainties surrounding future developments. Deltas are areas which are most at risk. Without robust mangement strategies and adaptation paths, human and natural services in deltas may suffer sever damage and we may be forced into sudden unplanned actions which are far more costly and less appreciated.
In 2001 the study "Integrated water management strategies for the Rhine and Meuse basins in a changing environment"
Summary of "Integrated water management strategies for the Rhine and Meuse basins in a changing environment"
Key issues for water management in the Netherlands include the integration of the water system's functions for ecology and society, their sustainable development, a river basin approach, and increasing the natural 'resilience' of the water systems. These should lead to the achievement of well-managed water systems in a complex environment in which the future is surrounded by large uncertainties. Climate change and the hydrologic response are major causes of uncertainty, as they may affect water availability. Uncertainties also depend on various unknown socio-economic and agro-economic developments (such as population growth, industrial expansion, land use changes, and use of different crop types), that will affect water demand. These factors together determine possible futures that are envisaged, and can be coloured according to different perspectives ('world views') people may have. Depending on the perspectives of the future, different water management strategies may be adopted. The question that rises is then: which is, given the uncertain future, the best water management strategy?
The objective of this project was to provide an integrated framework for decision making in water management in the Rhine and Meuse basins under increased uncertainty due to climate change. Existing socio-economic, demographic, land use and climate change scenarios as well as existing water management strategies have been structured using the Perspectives method. Using these results in combination with the results of a stakeholder workshop a set of consistent integrated scenarios has been developed. These represent future changes in demand and supply for the Rhine and the Meuse, as well as the according water management policies. The scenarios make up a matrix with combinations of management styles and world views, both where these match (utopias) and mismatch (dystopia). Using a suite of existing models, the hydrological and socio-economic consequences for the water systems in the Netherlands were assessed for each management styles against each scenario. Based on the model results in the utopia-dystopia matrix, and an interactive evaluation of the implications of each management style with stakeholders, the explored management strategies were analysed. From the results, recommendations were made concerning the robustness of present-day water management, and on options for adaptation of the management style with regard to uncertain future conditions.
