Water management faces major challenges to cope with potential global change impacts, and the inherent uncertainties surrounding future developments. Deltas are areas which are most at risk. Without robust mangement strategies and adaptation paths, human and natural services in deltas may suffer sever damage and we may be forced into sudden unplanned actions which are far more costly and less appreciated.
In 2001 the study "Integrated water management strategies for the Rhine and Meuse basins in a changing environment" identified consistent integrated scenarios of socio-economic and environmental changes in the Rhine and Meuse basins, and associated water management policy strategies using the Perspectives method. Furthermore,
hydrological changes that may result from different scenarios and management strategies and the consequences for the user functions of the water systems were analysed. With this information the robustness of different strategies under different possible futures was assessed. Since there was no ready-made approach available to achieve this, the project not only addresses issues concerning content: the project is also clearly a methodological exercise. The study was carried out within the framework of the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP)
A summary of the study is given below.
The report can be downloaded here.
Also a publication of Middelkoop et al on perspectives in integrated water management.
In 2007 the inception phase of the project 'Perspectives in integrated water management' was carried out. During this year changes of perspectives and transitions in water management were studied. A conceptual framework and project proposal to identify robust water management strategies and adaptation paths for the Rhine-Meuse delta under uncertainty is an other result of this project. Furthermore, a prototype of a tool to explore robuste strategies under uncertainties and learn how water managers can take uncertainties into account was developed (see picture below). More information on the project proposal and the tool can be achieved here
Summary of "Integrated water management strategies for the Rhine and Meuse basins in a changing environment"
Key issues for water management in the Netherlands include the integration of the water system's functions for ecology and society, their sustainable development, a river basin approach, and increasing the natural 'resilience' of the water systems. These should lead to the achievement of well-managed water systems in a complex environment in which the future is surrounded by large uncertainties. Climate change and the hydrologic response are major causes of uncertainty, as they may affect water availability. Uncertainties also depend on various unknown socio-economic and agro-economic developments (such as population growth, industrial expansion, land use changes, and use of different crop types), that will affect water demand. These factors together determine possible futures that are envisaged, and can be coloured according to different perspectives ('world views') people may have. Depending on the perspectives of the future, different water management strategies may be adopted. The question that rises is then: which is, given the uncertain future, the best water management strategy?
The objective of this project was to provide an integrated framework for decision making in water management in the Rhine and Meuse basins under increased uncertainty due to climate change. Existing socio-economic, demographic, land use and climate change scenarios as well as existing water management strategies have been structured using the Perspectives method. Using these results in combination with the results of a stakeholder workshop a set of consistent integrated scenarios has been developed. These represent future changes in demand and supply for the Rhine and the Meuse, as well as the according water management policies. The scenarios make up a matrix with combinations of management styles and world views, both where these match (utopias) and mismatch (dystopia). Using a suite of existing models, the hydrological and socio-economic consequences for the water systems in the Netherlands were assessed for each management styles against each scenario. Based on the model results in the utopia-dystopia matrix, and an interactive evaluation of the implications of each management style with stakeholders, the explored management strategies were analysed. From the results, recommendations were made concerning the robustness of present-day water management, and on options for adaptation of the management style with regard to uncertain future conditions.
