Forecast Manager
The Forecast Management display offers the following functionality:
- Forecast management
- Setting current forecasts
- Changing expiry times of forecasts
- Registering workflows with modifiers
These four basic functions are accessible through individual tabs within the display.
The icons in the table are interpreted as follows:
Icon | Description |
|---|---|
| Complete current forecast |
| Complete current local forecast |
| (Partly) complete current forecast |
| (Partly) complete current local forecast |
| Approved forecast |
| Approved (local) forecast |
| Partly failed forecast |
The coloured circle icons indicate which state the system has used for each run:
Option | Manual Forecast (Dialog) | Scheduled Forecast Task | Result | Icon | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | User selects cold state | - | Cold state used |
| as expected: |
2 | User selects warm state | - | Cold state used |
| not as expected: |
3 | User selects warm state | - | Warm state used |
| as expected: |
4 | User selects no specific start state | Forecast runs with configured cold state | Cold state used | as expected: | |
5 | User selects no specific start state | Forecast runs with configured properties:
| Cold state used |
| not as expected: |
6 | User selects no specific start state | Forecast runs with configured properties:
| Warm state used | as expected: | |
| 7 | User selects no specific start state | Forecast runs with configured properties:
For more information: backupWarmStateModuleInstanceId | Warm state from forecast simulation was used |
| used fall back option: warm historical state configured, but warm forecast state is used |
The icons with more details:
cold state start as selected by user. In this case the cold state id and state start time are shown in the tooltip.
warm state start as selected by user. In this case the state search period is shown in the tooltip.
cold state start as a warm state in the selected search period could not be found. In this case the module instance id and the state search period are shown in the tooltip.- no state icon: default state start. No specific state start selected by user.
The tables in the display tabs can be sorted by clicking the headers of the columns.
Sort options
These options are accessible across all tabs of the forecast management dialog.
Clicking any column header sorts the list of workflows either in ascending or descending order based on the values in that column. Clicking the same column header again reverses the sorting order.
Tip: For quickly filtering to find a specific forecast, you can sort the list by the "Approved" column. This action will prioritize approved forecasts at the top of the list. Next, select the desired forecast and use the "Filter by Selection" option to focus on it.
Filter options
These options are available in all tabs of the forecast management dialog.
Each table within the display tabs allows filtering of the visible forecasts using buttons next to the table. Here's how to use them:
First, select the text to use as a filter:
- Click on a table cell to select all text in that cell. The selected cell will have a thin blue frame.
- Alternatively, double-click and drag inside a cell to select a portion of the text. The selected text will be highlighted.
Click the 'Filter By Selection' button to apply the filter. After filtering, only forecasts that contain the selected text in the corresponding column will be visible. You can repeat this process to apply multiple filters.
For example, filtering on the text 'HRES' in the 'Workflow' column will display only forecasts with a workflow name containing 'HRES'.
It is also possible to use a displayed icon as a filter:
- Click on a table cell containing an icon.
- Click the 'Filter By Selection' button to filter forecasts based on the selected icon. After filtering, only forecasts with the same icon in the corresponding column will be visible. This is useful, for instance, to filter only approved forecasts.
To view a list of all module instances for the selected run, click the "filter by branch" button. After selecting the module instance, all task runs linked to the selected task run are displayed.
To remove filters and view all forecasts again, click the 'Remove Filter' button.
Forecast Overview tab
The Forecast Overview tab allows for:
- Downloading individual forecasts from the Central Database
- Redownloading individual forecasts from the Central Database under another synchronisation profile
- Selecting a forecast and adding it to the forecast filter in FEWS Explorer
- Rerunning a forecast
When moving the mouse over the forecast list a tool tip indicates whether the forecast has been fully successful or not.
Rerun a forecast
A forecast can be rerun by pressing the [Run ] button after selecting the forecast form the forecast list. The selected forecast will be completely rerun and saved as a new forecast in the data base. This option can be useful when rerunning an Archived Forecast.
Download a forecast from Central Database (only in OC)
Forecasts that are available in the Central Database, but not in the Local Data store are listed in the top panel. Forecasts can be selected with the mouse and downloaded to an OC by pressing [Download].
Please note that the download may require some time. When downloaded the forecast will be visible in the lower listing.
Redownload a forecast from Central Database (only in OC)
When logged in, the Operator Client (OC) allows for different synchronisation profiles to be used. If an individual forecast has been downloaded in the past under a minimal synchronisation profile, then only part of the data may have been downloaded. To download all data for such a forecast, log in under a full synchronisation profile, select the forecast in the lower listing with the mouse and redownload all data for the forecast to the OC by pressing [Redownload].
Please note that redownloading may require some time. After redownloading the forecast will still be visible in the lower listing.
Promote button
Since version 2021.02 a promote button is added, this can be used to promote a local run to an approved server run. It will show a popup in which a description can be added which will be stored with the run.
The button has been added for auto calibration which normally will just be local runs, when a user has found interesting results but might want to continue calibrating, this way the run is saved.
Current Forecast tab
A few definitions are required at the start of this section:
- Current Forecast
The Current Forecast is a combination of forecasts made for the whole region, which together form the current forecast. The current forecast is automatically downloaded to OCs. Location related icons are refreshed on the basis on the current forecast. The current forecast is always displayed in the Data Editor and -Display. A forecast can be partly current when not all module instance ids are written in the forecast that replaces the old forecast. This can happen when a sub workflow is made current or it can be a config error when module instance ids for simulated data are reused between workflows unintentionally. In the current forecast tab only the latest approved forecast per workflow is listed.
- Approved Forecast
Approved Forecasts have been approved by the system or manually by an FDO to become the Current Forecast. The latest Approved Forecast is the Current Forecast.
- Other Forecasts
Besides Approved Forecasts, the system may be populated with other forecasts that are the result of manual or scheduled forecasts with or without application of what-if scenarios.
Under normal conditions the Current Forecasts will be updated automatically by the system on the basis of the results of a successfully completed scheduled forecasting run. These forecast are marked with the icon 
.
A forecaster can amend the Current Forecast by replacing it partly or fully with the results individual forecast runs. These 'other' forecasts can for example be the result of running what-if scenarios. The Current Forecast tab allows for selection of individual forecasts that should become part of the Current Forecast.
To change the Current Forecast, select a forecast run that should become part of the Current Forecast in the lower column of the tab. Upon pressing [Approve] the selected forecast will become part of the Current Forecast.
In the list of forecasts that make up the Current Forecast, overlapping forecasts may appear. For example, a forecaster might run a what-if scenario for part of a catchment where an automatic forecast has already been generated as part of the Current Forecast.
If the what-if scenario should now become part of the Current Forecast, it can be selected in the lower table of the Current Forecast tab and moved to the upper table by clicking [Approve]. The upper table will then display both forecast runs: the original forecast for the entire catchment and the what-if scenario for the partial catchment.
When presenting the Current Forecast, the system overrides the data from the original workflow with the rerun results for the affected part of the catchment.
Forecast Expiry Time tab
The Forecast Expiry Time tab allows for:
- Deleting individual forecasts from the Central Database
- Changing the expiry time of individual forecasts in the Central Database
Deleting a forecast from the Central Database (only in OC)
When logged in, forecasts that are available in the Central Database are listed in the table. Please note that only forecasts for which the user has delete permission are visible in the table. Forecasts can be selected with the mouse and marked for deletion by pressing [Delete]. Forecasts marked for deletion will be deleted in the next rolling barrel run. Only forecasts for which the user has delete permission can be deleted.
Changing the expiry time of a forecast in the Central Database (only in OC)
When logged in, forecasts that are available in the Central Database are listed in the table. Please note that only forecasts for which the user has delete permission are visible in the table. The expiry time of each forecast is visible in the Expiry Time column. When the expiry time of a forecast has passed, the forecast will be deleted from the Central Database. Forecasts that will expire within 10 days are displayed in strikethrough text in the table.
To change the expiry time of individual forecasts, select the forecasts in the table with the mouse and press [Change Expiry Time]. In the dialog that appears, select a new expiry time and press [Apply] to change the expiry time of the selected forecasts. The expiry time can only be changed for forecasts for which the user has delete permission.
Modifiers tab
The modifiers tab of the forecast management display allows for the following functions:
- Listing modifiers that were used in the selected workflow
- Restoring modifiers that were used (and now inactive) for the selected workflow
In the top panel the user can select the forecast workflow. Once selected the bottom panel will list all the modifiers that have been used. When the modifier is still active the first cell of the row is green, when it is inactive this cell is grey and the entire row is striked through.
By clicking the restore icon in the last column, the modifier will be restored (made active again). With this action a new modifier is created, which is a copy of the original modifier.
Popup Menu
Popup menu can be opened from any Forecast Management tab by selecting a forecast and using right mouse button.
Menu “Show in Log Browser (Ctrl+L)” – Opens the System Monitor with the Log Browser tab selected. The Log Browser lists all messages associated with the selected forecast.
Menu “Workflow Schema (Ctrl+S)” – Opens a new Workflow Schema tab. This view shows the workflows involved in creating the selected forecast, as well as all input workflows that generated data for that forecast. (Note: workflow dependencies must be configured in
WorkflowDescriptors.xmlusing theinputWorkflowIdelement.)Menu “Workflow Navigator (Ctrl+N)” – Opens the Workflow Navigator, which displays the workflows and modules used to create the selected forecast. From the Workflow Navigator popup menu, you can display the time series associated with the forecast selected in the Forecast Management display.
The menu options “Show in Log Browser (Ctrl+L)” and “Workflow Navigator (Ctrl+N)” are only available if the corresponding explorerTask entries for System Monitor and Workflow Navigator are configured in Explorer.xml.
Display configuration
It is possible to add display configuration for forecast management, for example adding colors based on age of the forecast. for more information click here.
