Introduction
A tropical cyclone forecast involves the prediction of several interrelated features, including the track, winds, rainfall, storm surge and, of course, the areas threatened. Many organisation provide forecasts and for example the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, FL issues a forecast every 6 hours for period extending out to 72 hours. However, tropical cyclone forecasts are not perfect. Errors arise from a lack of a full understanding of the formation and growth of tropical cyclones and from the limitations of the forecasting techniques themselves. For these reasons it is important to take into account some variability in the track and intensity of the storm when modelling its impact with Delft3D-FLOW and WAVE. This is done with so-called 'Ensemble modeling'.
Usage of the toolbox
The first two tabs of the Advanced Tropical Cyclone toolbox are similar compared to the Tropical Cyclone toolbox. A third tab is added called 'Ensemble'. Within this tab we are going to create multiple spiderweb of a cyclone but this time with taking into account the uncertainty related to the prediction.
