The first step in scenario building
Define basic risk management scenarios
In the previous steps ("Starting IMS" and "Risk Assessment") risks were assessed, and risk reduction objectives and targets were identified. Now the development and selection of risk management scenarios is worked out.
First, technically feasible measures to achieve the risk reduction objectives are identified.
Second, several basic scenarios are composed.
"A basic scenario consists of a set of technically feasible risk reduction measures that could be implemented at the sources, the pathways or the receptors, or a combination of measures along this sequence. The risk-reduction results for each basic scenario need to be estimated, and compared with the risk reduction objectives and targets to be achieved. In this way the system response to risk reduction measures becomes clear, and a discussion with stakeholders on acceptable risk management scenarios can be started."
The purpose of making basic scenarios is twofold: testing the risk reduction response (in time and space) of risk reduction measures at the level of risk clusters and the megasite, and constituting a basis for initial discussion with the group of stakeholders GOS on management scenarios. As a result of this discussion, a selection of acceptable basic scenarios is determined, which are to be used in further scenario development.
The mentioned aspects are addressed in details as follows:
- Technologies to be included in scenarios
- General criteria for scenarios built-up
- Building up basic scenarios
- Checking and updating risk reduction objectives, targets and boundary conditions
- Selection of acceptable basic scenarios
Output
According to the risk assessment, the basic risk management scenarios are determined based on technically feasible risk reduction measures and technologies. As a result of GOS discussion, acceptable basic scenarios are selected.
