What is the Pathways Generator?
The Pathways Generator helps you explore policy pathways in an interactive way, for example, together with stakeholders. The results are shown in a pathways map. Pathways are sequences (or portfolios) of actions over time to achieve a set of pre-defined objectives under uncertain and changing future conditions. Pathways are part of a policy and planning framework (e.g. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)[1]), which incorporates the evaluation of costs and benefits with monitoring to track both policy implementation and any changing conditions. The DAPP approach is built upon the notion that decisions are made over time in dynamic interaction with the system of concern and cannot be considered independently. In the same way that all roads lead to Rome, there are also countless paths to reach the future.
Click on the two figures below to view example pathways maps.
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How to use the Pathways Generator
The Pathways Generator is a simple application to use.
1. Download the executable onto your computer and start the programme by double clicking on it.
2. Choose approach
In the current version, there are two ways to generate pathways:
Using adaptation tipping points based on the conditions under which a policy fails. Scenarios are then used to assess the timing of the tipping points.
Using the timing of adaptation tipping points determined from an analysis of different scenarios.
In method 1 a vulnerability assessment can be used to assess the main conditions for unacceptable performance of the system under consideration (e.g. at sea level rise of 1 m, the performance is unacceptable; with action X acceptable performance is reached until 2 m of sea level rise). In method 2 the performance of the current situation and potential adaptation actions must be assessed over time via either transient or semi-static analyses, before being compared to any threshold values for unacceptable performance.
3. Add Actions
After selecting your approach, the next step is to set the characteristics of the current system and actions. Either, add the conditions under which a tipping point is reached (method 1) or when the tipping is reached (method 2). This can be done for several
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actions [click on Actions]. For method 2, the timing can be added for different
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scenarios [click on Scenarios].
4. Generate Pathways
You can then begin to generate your
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pathways [click on pathways]. Select the first actions, and any subsequent actions. Identify whether the pathway is a combination of actions (both stay implemented and will be maintained) or whether it is a sequence of actions (one action commences after an earlier action concludes). Combination actions are drawn with a dashed line of the two combining action colours.
5. Add Scenarios
The next step is to add scenario scales to your
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pathways [click on Scenarios]. Scenarios create a link between conditions and timing (condition based pathways), or allow you create additional columns for timing of the tipping points (time based pathways).
6. Modify the Pathways Map
The final step is to modify the appearance of the pathways map. The 'X-axis setting' button allows you to define a caption and range for the x-axis of the map, while the 'Graph Settings' button allows you to define the map size, legend size, among other settings.
The following two links provide short instructional videos on how to create pathways maps using the navigation example illustrated above.
Condition-based pathways map
Time-based pathways map
Conditions for use
The Pathways Generator is free for all to use. Do not distribute the software without this accompanying flyer. There are no extra or hidden costs to obtain or use the software, provided that proper reference is given to its use, developers and the DAPP methodology. In order to sustain the development of the software, we do ask that you involve us in your projects. This will provide the necessary resources to further develop the Pathways Generator’s capabilities.
Share your experience
Please share your experiences of using the Pathways Generator with us! Share your pathways maps, along with any publication material if available. If possible, we would like to post them on this website to share with the ‘pathways community’ . Also, your feedback on the tool is valuable so we can improve and elaborate it.
Join in the development
The Pathways Generator is a living project. The version that you are working with now is the co-production of many partners. If you identify a potential capability that you would like to incorporate into the Pathways Generator, please contact us and involve us in your project. We are always seeking to further develop the software, and would welcome your collaboration. Proper recognition for any resources received would of course be given within the application and its associated documentation.
About
The Pathways Generator is developed by and remains the copyright of:
Marjolijn Haasnoot
(marjolijn.haasnoot@deltares.nl)
Deltares
Delft, The Netherlands
www.deltares.nl
Willem van Deursen
(wvandeursen@carthago.nl)
Carthago Consultancy
Rotterdam, The Netherlands
www.carthago.nl
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Development to date has been generously made possible by the following parties/projects:
Deltares, NL
Carthago Consultancy, NL
Wellington City Council, NZ
Ministry for the Environment, NZ
RISES, the European Union’s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and
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Demonstration
under Grant Agreement No:FP7-ENV-2013-Two-Stage-603396- RISES-AM-
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- Haasnoot, M., J.H. Kwakkel. W.E. Walker, J. ter Maat. (2013). Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A Method for Crafting Robust Decisions for a Deeply Uncertain World. Global Env. Change, 23 (2) 485–498 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006
- Haasnoot M., H. Middelkoop, A. Offermans, E. van Beek, W.P.A. van Deursen (2012). Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in River deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change. 115 (3-4), 795-819 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0444-2
- Kwadijk, J.C.J., M. Haasnoot, et al.(2010). Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands. Interdisciplinary reviews: Climate Change. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.64