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Skill Scores Display
This display provides an overview of all threshold crossings in the observed and forecast time series. By matching observed and forecast thresholds, various skill scores can be computed.
Background
The number The first step is to set up a contingency table. Given criteria on time intervals to consider when matching thresholds, the values of a , b , c and d in the table below can be filled in (where e.g. a is the number of matched observed and forecast thresholds).
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The Bias of paired thresholds is the average time between paired observed and forecast events.
Setting Criteria for Analyses
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To specific what matching threshold crossings mean, a number of criteria can be used. When clicking the \[Change Criteria\] button the following display appears... |
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- Max time threshold being too early/late . These criteria define what the maximum difference between a forecasted threshold crossing and an observed threshold crossing are allowed to be in order to consider them as matching.
Matching Events
In the Matching Events tab different background colours are used to indicate in which sector of the Contingency Table events fall...
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The filter boxes at the left hand side of the skill scores display enable the selection of certain locations or certain thresholds levels to be shown alone. By activating the check box below the criteria, it's possible to display Up crossings of thresholds only.
Forecast Available for Events
In the Forecast Available for Events tab different background colours are used to indicate in which sector of the Contingency Table events fall...
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The performance indicator that is computed on the basis of the selection in this tab is critical reliability .
Thresholds List
The Threshold List provides an overview of all threshold crossing events available for the selected locations. In the analyses subsets can be made by setting the criteria discussed in the earlier part of this section.
Archiving Events
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As the thresholds are stored in the operational database for only some days (according to the length of the Rolling Barrel), it's possible to manually export the list of thresholds by pressing the \[*Export* \] button in the skill scores display. This list can later be imported in a Stand Alone system by pressing the \[*Import* \] button. In this way, longer records can be established for analysis in an off-line modus. |
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